The reopening of Venezuelan oil trade under conditional US authorisations has increased the importance of checking tanker histories, cargo origins and licence terms, according to Kpler analysis published by Hellenic Shipping News. The report argues that checking sanctions lists alone cannot establish the exposure attached to a shipment, even when its vessel is not designated.
Kpler figures cited in the report put Venezuelan crude exports at an average of about 870,000 barrels per day in 2025. Shipments dropped to roughly 667,000 bpd in January 2026 before recovering to an average of about 1.14 million bpd between April and September. The analysis does not attribute the January decline to a single cause, instead stressing that sanctions can reshape trading channels without immediately halting physical output.
The report describes a progression from the February 2025 announcement of a wind-down in US energy-related permissions to restricted operations under a July licence. It says a subsequent controlled reopening brought further authorisations from the Office of Foreign Assets Control, with amendments continuing in August and September 2026. For individual cargo movements, the relevant dates, permitted counterparties and precise scope of each licence remain central to compliance assessments.
Destinations have also shifted. China and unidentified destinations dominated Venezuelan exports in 2022, whereas the US is the largest identified recipient in the report’s 2026 data, ahead of India and Spain. Kpler recorded more than 560 Venezuelan crude trades involving 189 vessels in 2026. Unknown destinations, movements through the Bahamas and Curaçao, and ship-to-ship transfers nevertheless require further cargo and vessel checks, the analysis says.
Hellenic Shipping News also highlights the limits of Automatic Identification System data. Missing transmissions can reflect coverage problems or technical faults rather than deliberate concealment, while ship-to-ship transfers can serve routine operational purposes. Suspected false positions and unexplained gaps therefore need validation against movement patterns, satellite imagery and other evidence; none is independently proof of wrongdoing.
The recommended approach combines cargo identification with reviews of vessel behaviour, transfers, ownership, management, flag and previous employment. Tankers can move between Venezuelan and other sanctions-sensitive trades, including Iranian routes, making their wider trading history relevant. The report treats resulting risk indicators as grounds for enhanced due diligence, not legal findings.