Potential US sanctions relief for tankers could draw vessels away from Russian clean-product exports and towards Middle Eastern employment, increasing freight costs for Russian trades while easing shortages around Hormuz. Hellenic Shipping News, carrying a Platts report, said analysts expected any change to redistribute working tonnage rather than unlock a large reserve of idle ships.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said legitimate businesses would be permitted to buy sanctioned tankers for use in non-sanctioned trades to lower shipping costs. Washington has not yet published a detailed proposal. BRS Shipbrokers counted 148 deepsea tankers sanctioned solely by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control as of 19 October, representing 2.5% of the global fleet by vessel count. Location signals suggested only 14 had been idle for more than three months.
BRS said most potential candidates for mainstream employment were already operating in likely sanctioned trades, predominantly carrying Russian clean petroleum products. The earnings incentive to switch has strengthened: Platts assessments put average MR time-charter-equivalent earnings on the Baltic–East Coast South America route $15,518.14 a day below the Global Clean Tanker Medium Range Index over 1–16 October. Gibson Shipbrokers said Russian export freight rates could rise if vessels were diverted into Middle Eastern business.
Geography could favour shuttle employment. Gibson estimated that 84% of tankers subject only to OFAC sanctions were in the Middle East, Indian Ocean or East Asia, with just 16 in European waters. It identified Hormuz shuttles as their most likely work, following attacks that have restricted tanker availability. BRS also saw scope for these ships to relieve mainstream vessels currently undertaking cross-Hormuz voyages. Gibson cautioned that a short waiver might not give charterers enough certainty to commit to longer voyages.
Legal relief would not, however, resolve operational barriers. UK and EU sanctions could remain in force, while vessel age, technical condition, vetting and insurance would continue to constrain employment. Gibson said 70% of OFAC-listed tankers were at least 20 years old and that few mainstream charterers could use ships without International Group protection and indemnity cover and classification by an International Association of Classification Societies member.
S&P Global Energy Horizons analyst Fotios Katsoulas consequently expected the realistically transferable fleet to be substantially smaller than the sanctioned total. INTERTANKO urged checks on condition, insurance and ownership rather than equating sanctions removal with safety compliance. The International Chamber of Shipping said the proposal’s impact remained difficult to judge without clarity on its interaction with EU and UK restrictions.