Shipping crude from the Middle East Gulf to Asia cost more than $37 a barrel by mid-October, over five times the prewar level, gCaptain reported, citing the International Energy Agency. The increase comes despite a recovery in regional oil exports, as operators rely on alternative routes and cargo transfers to maintain deliveries amid escalating Iranian attacks around the Strait of Hormuz.
The IEA said tanker rates hit record levels in September and rose further into October. For a very large crude carrier carrying 2 million barrels, the reported per-barrel cost implies freight expenditure exceeding $74 million for one cargo, against less than $15 million before the conflict. The figures concern crude transport rather than clean product tanker rates.
Export volumes have nevertheless moved above their prewar average. According to Kpler vessel-tracking figures cited by The Wall Street Journal and reported by gCaptain, Middle East oil shipments averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week ending 18 October. That compares with a prewar average of 23.3 million barrels a day. An improvised network combining pipelines, short tanker voyages through Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman has supported the recovery under US military protection.
Pipeline use has substantially changed the regional export pattern. Kpler estimated that 40% of Gulf crude exports avoided Hormuz in September, up from about 17% before the war, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased flows to terminals outside the strait. Tankers still transiting Hormuz often follow a route close to Oman under American military protection, then hand cargoes to other ships for onward delivery. Flows through the strait, including offshore transfers, remain at roughly 82% of prewar levels.
Security risks continue to weigh on that system. The Wall Street Journal recorded about 30 vessel attacks during October so far, citing maritime security reports. Financial incentives have also increased: Kpler estimates that traders can make an additional $20 a barrel when reselling Iraqi crude compared with before the war, while some seafarers are being offered substantial hazard bonuses for the crossings.