Disruption to LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping seaborne gas trade without delivering a corresponding lift in carrier earnings, Splash247 reports. European gas prices have reached their highest levels since 2022, approaching $30 per million British thermal units, while the Baltic Exchange assessed US Gulf-Europe LNG carrier spot earnings at $21,200 a day last week.
Almost eight months into the crisis, Qatar remains unable to use the pipeline alternatives and offshore transfers that have helped regional oil exports recover. Vortexa counted five confirmed LNG carrier passages through Hormuz last week, compared with a four-week average of 12, with only two vessels carrying outbound cargoes. Ras Laffan loaded 400,000 tonnes across five shipments. Separately, Kpler identified 13 Qatari loadings during October 1-13, nine of which required verification beyond active AIS transmissions.
The supply interruption extends beyond restricted vessel movements. According to Splash247, Edison has received force majeure notices for 35 Qatari cargoes, representing 4.6bn cubic metres of gas, with deliveries halted until early December. Damage sustained by two Ras Laffan liquefaction trains in March has taken 12.8m tonnes of annual capacity out of service, and repairs could take years.
US exports are filling part of the gap. Vortexa put American shipments last week at 2.5m tonnes across 36 cargoes, while official US data showed first-half 2026 exports rising 23%. Europe and Turkey received 76 of the 143 US cargoes delivered in September, according to S&P Global figures cited by Splash247. India’s sourcing has also changed: Oman supplied 590,000 tonnes that month, ahead of Nigeria’s 350,000 tonnes and US deliveries of 340,000 tonnes. Qatar supplied just 100,000 tonnes.
Europe’s reliance on Atlantic supply is increasing as winter approaches. Storage stood at 74.6% full this week, almost 15 percentage points below the seasonal five-year average, while the EU is preparing to stop remaining Russian LNG imports from January 1. Splash247 reported that stronger European buying has shortened average Atlantic voyages, returning ships to availability sooner and reducing tonne-mile demand. The Baltic’s US Gulf-Japan assessment was $49,000 a day last week, more than double the European route.
Newbuilding deliveries present another constraint on earnings. Flex LNG estimates an orderbook of about 285 ships, equal to 37% of the current fleet, with roughly 95 deliveries expected next year. Meanwhile, Europe’s Russian LNG ban could redirect Arctic shipments towards Asia, potentially generating longer voyages alongside additional logistical and sanctions complications.